Way back in January when President Bush announced that the U.S. military was going to surge troops in Iraq, I was skeptical and wrote and overly long post about it. This week brings about the much anticipated surge progress report in the form of Congressional testimony from General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker.
The idea of the surge, as President Bush explained, was to increase our military presence from roughly 130,000 troops to 160,000 in order to give Iraqi politicians breathing room to make progress on national reconciliation legislation. So, drum roll please, is the surge working?
Both officials said they believed that Iraq was on the path to potential success. Petraeus said that “the military objectives of the surge are, in large measure, being met.” Crocker was similarly optimistic: “In my judgment, the cumulative trajectory of political, economic and diplomatic developments in Iraq is upwards, although the slope of that line is not steep.”
From what Petraeus says, it sounds like our troops are doing their job. But Crocker isn’t as convincing when discussing the political progress which is the point of the troop surge. On the political front, Petraeus was more straightforward in his letter to the troops.
Many of us had hoped this summer would be a time of tangible political progress at the national level as well. One of the justifications for the surge, after all, was that it would help create the space for Iraqi leaders to tackle the tough questions and agree on key pieces of “national reconciliation” legislation. It has not worked out as we had hoped.
Anyway, what this all boils down to is that 160,000 troops have lead to an arguable increase in security which, according to our Ambassador has lead to a slight up tick in political progress. It seems to me, then, that it would be logical to conclude that we could amplify this effect by adding more troops. Why only secure a few provinces and put up with slow political progress when we could secure the entire country with an additional 100,000 troops, theoretically making it easier for Iraqi leaders to get their shit together at a greater pace?
But that’s not going to happen. Tomorrow the President will announce that the surge was successful and therefore he will authorize the withdrawal of 30,000 troops from Iraq, putting our force level back where it was before the surge. Will we not be right back where we started?